2017 Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are this upcoming Sunday, and some of the categories will be closely contested while some are apparent landslides.  How many will awards will “La La Land” win and will “Moonlight” get any serious recognition? For this article, I go through some of the major categories and make predictions for who will win and who should win in.  I’ve given explanation for the big five categories, but just gave simple predictions for the lesser categories that the casual audience may not pay as much attention to.

Best Picture:

Nominations: Arrival; Fences; Hacksaw Ridge; Hell or High Water; Hidden Figures; La La Land; Lion; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight

Who Will Win: La La Land

Who Should Win: Moonlight

For the most part, I agree with the nominations for this category. I think “Hidden Figures” and “Lion” were lucky to sneak in here ahead of films such as “Loving” and “American Honey” and “I, Daniel Blake.” At this point, I would be very surprised if the Academy gave the award to a film that wasn’t “La La Land” or “Moonlight,” with “La La Land” being the favorite because it’s the type of film that the Oscars love to award. It pays homage to great musicals of past and is wonderfully directed, but it’s not a better film than “Moonlight” so I think there’s still a chance that “Moonlight” might rightfully snatch the win.

Best Director:

Nominations: Arrival; Hacksaw Ridge; La La Land; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight

Who Will Win: La La Land

Who Should Win: La La Land

While I think “Moonlight” is a superior film to “La La Land,” it is impossible to deny the great job that Damien Chazelle did with “La La Land” and he should be rightfully recognized for his great direction. Again, there is a slight chance that Barry Jenkins of “Moonlight” might slip in with the win but I don’t foresee that happening. I don’t understand Mel Gibson being nominated here for “Hacksaw Ridge.” It’s a good movie but Denzel Washington would have been a better nomination for his work with directing “Fences.”

Best Actor:

Nominations: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea; Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Gosling, La La Land; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic; Denzel Washington, Fences

Who Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences

Who Should Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

It’s a complete joke that Ryan Gosling is in this list of nominees quite frankly. His performance was the most significant fault in “La La Land” and almost ruined the movie for me. I will be beyond angry if he somehow wins. But this is actually an interesting race. Casey Affleck is the clear winner to me, but Washington picked up the SAG award and 18 of the last 22 SAG winners have gone on to win the Oscar.

Best Actress:

Nominations: Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie; Emma Stone, La La Land; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Who Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land

Who Should Win: Natalie Portman, Jackie

I would like to preface this by saying this is one of the best collections of actresses we’ve had in this category for some time so I would like to commend everyone on this list. The academy is going to give as much as they can to “La La Land” this year and I won’t be entirely disappointed if Emma Stone wins. I think she did a much better job than I anticipated of her and think she is a deserving winner. But Natalie Portman should be the winning her second Oscar this year for her amazing work in “Jackie.” The movie would have been very lackluster without her, similar to Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady” and I would love to see her pick up her second Oscar win after winning for “Black Swan” in 2010.

Best Supporting Actor:

Nominations: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight; Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Dev Patel, Lion; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Ali was amazing in “Moonlight” and had un-matched charisma on screen that helped get the movie flowing in the opening third. While I loved Jeff Bridges’s character in “Hell or High Water” I don’t foresee him winning. The only role that could challenge Ali would be Dev Patel from “Lion,” but I think that the Academy will want to make up for snubbing “Moonlight” of Best Picture by giving Ali a golden statue.

Best Supporting Actress:

Nominations: Viola Davis, Fences; Naomie Harris, Moonlight; Nicole Kidman, Lion; Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures; Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Who Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences

Who Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences

Viola Davis is an acting tour de force and will win this category with ease. She remains one of my favorite actresses in Hollywood right now and she rightfully deserves to win this category by a landslide.

Best Cinematography:

Nominations: Arrival, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight, Silence

Who Will Win: La La Land

Who Should Win: Arrival

Best Animated Feature:

Nominatons: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, Zootopia

Who Will Win: Zootopia

Who Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Costume Design:

Nominations: Allied, Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, La La Land

Who Will Win: La La Land

Who Should Win: La La Land

Best Documentary (Feature):

Nominations: Fire at Sea; I Am Not Your Negro; Life, Animated; O.J.: Made in America; 13th

Who Will Win: O.J.: Made in America

Who Should Win: 13th

Achievement in Visual Effects:

Nominations: Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, Kubo and the Two Strings, Rogue One

Who Will Win: The Jungle Book

Who Should Win: The Jungle Book

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominations: Arrival; Fences; Hidden Figures; Lion; Moonlight

Who Will Win: Fences

Who Should Win: Moonlight

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominations: Hell or High Water; La La Land; The Lobster; Manchester by the Sea; 20th Century Women

Who Will Win: La La Land

Who Should Win: La La Land


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